Sir Keir Faces Tough Challenge as Voters Head to Welsh By-Election, with Reform Party Poised for Victory

Published on October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
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A by-election in Wales today could see Reform achieve another significant victory over Labour.

Voters have headed to the polls in Caerphilly to choose a new representative for the Welsh Parliament.

Caerphilly Prepares For Senedd By-ElectionLlŷr Powell, Reform’s candidate for CaerphillyCredit: Getty Caerphilly Senedd by-electionVoters will cast their votes in the Senedd by-election todayCredit: PA

The Senedd seat has been held by Labour since devolution in 1999, and the broader area has been represented by a Labour MP since 1918.

Current polling indicates that Reform is positioned to win the constituency, with the party receiving 42 percent support.

However, it will be a close contest against Plaid Cymru, which stands at 38 percent.

In a significant setback for Sir Keir Starmer, Labour is now lagging behind with a disappointing 12 percent.

Results will be announced in the early hours of Friday and are already being perceived as indicative of the potential future political landscape of Westminster.

As polling began, Reform’s candidate Llŷr Powell stated: “Let’s vote for a better future.

“Let’s bring prosperity back to Caerphilly.

“Put your family and friends first.

“Vote Reform today.”

Powell added: “Today is the day to end 100 years of Labour rule in Caerphilly.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, encouraged voters to support his party “to prevent Reform from gaining power.”

He stated: “Vote for Lindsay Whittle in Caerphilly today to keep Reform out and elect a strong local champion who will always advocate for your community.”

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Caerphilly by-election?

The Caerphilly by-election is significant as it could potentially alter the political balance in the Welsh Parliament and provide insights into future elections at Westminster.

Who are the main candidates in the by-election?

The main candidates include Llŷr Powell from Reform and Lindsay Whittle from Plaid Cymru. Labour has also fielded a candidate but is currently polling low.

When will the results of the by-election be announced?

The results will be announced in the early hours of Friday following the by-election.

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