​As the race to succeed Governor Abdullahi Sule gathers momentum, Nasarawa State is approaching an election that could determine not only its next governor but also the future of an unwritten political arrangement that has shaped conversations around power sharing in the state for decades.

Ahead of the 2027 governorship election, zoning has emerged as one of the defining issues in the contest, with political leaders divided over whether the governorship should rotate to Nasarawa West or remain open to candidates from all parts of the state.

For supporters of rotation, 2027 presents an opportunity to return power to Nasarawa West, which last produced a governor when Abdullahi Adamu completed his second term in 2007.

But opponents insist that no constitutional or legal provision compels voters or political parties to surrender the governorship to any senatorial district.

Between these positions are the voters, whose eventual decision could determine whether zoning remains a powerful instrument for managing political succession in Nasarawa or becomes secondary to considerations such as candidate popularity, competence, party affiliation, performance and grassroots appeal.

Nearly three decades of power sharing

Since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, all three senatorial districts of Nasarawa have had a taste of the governorship.

Abdullahi Adamu, from Nasarawa West, became governor in 1999 and served until 2007.

He was succeeded by Aliyu Akwe Doma, from Nasarawa South, who governed between 2007 and 2011.

Tanko Al-Makura, also from the southern axis, defeated Doma in 2011 and remained governor until 2019.

Power subsequently moved to Nasarawa North with the election of Abdullahi Sule in 2019. Sule won a second term in 2023 and will complete eight years in office in 2027.

It is against this background that proponents of zoning argue that Nasarawa West should produce Sule’s successor.

The agitation has become increasingly prominent, with political actors from the district arguing that the West has been out of Government House for about two decades.

Former governor and former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, has also spoken about an understanding among political stakeholders to rotate power in the interest of fairness, stability and peaceful coexistence.

However, the arrangement remains essentially political rather than constitutional.

There is no provision in the Nigerian Constitution compelling Nasarawa to rotate its governorship among the three senatorial districts.

This means that while zoning could influence party decisions and voter sentiment, the ballot ultimately determines who becomes governor.

Sule throws his weight behind Nasarawa West

Governor Sule has left little doubt about where he stands.

The governor backed the movement of the APC governorship ticket to Nasarawa West and subsequently endorsed Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada as his preferred successor.

Sule announced Wadada as his choice in April 2026, saying the decision followed extensive consultations with stakeholders within and outside Nasarawa State.

According to the governor, the search considered the ability of prospective candidates to win the election before the field was eventually narrowed down and Wadada selected.

The endorsement immediately altered the dynamics of the succession race.

It brought together two significant factors in Nasarawa politics: the argument for zoning and the influence of an outgoing governor in determining his party’s succession plan.

Wadada subsequently emerged as the APC governorship candidate.

His candidacy means the ruling party will enter the election with a standard-bearer from the senatorial district whose leaders have been most vocal about producing the next governor.

But whether that calculation will translate into victory at the general election remains another matter.

Not everyone accepts the zoning argument

Despite the push for power to move to Nasarawa West, there has been resistance to the arrangement.

Some political stakeholders maintain that restricting the governorship to one district would deprive other qualified aspirants of the opportunity to seek the mandate of the people.

The disagreement has not been merely theoretical.

Political interests from Nasarawa North have challenged the West zoning arrangement, demonstrating that there is no unanimous statewide acceptance of the formula.

A political consultative forum in Nasarawa North, for instance, earlier pushed for Nasarawa-Eggon Local Government Area to produce the governor in 2027.

Such positions underline the difficulty of treating zoning as a settled political agreement.

The question, therefore, is whether voters will consider rotational fairness strong enough to outweigh other electoral considerations.

Wadada carries zoning advantage into election

Wadada enters the contest with several obvious political advantages.

He is the candidate of the ruling APC, comes from Nasarawa West, enjoys Sule’s backing and already possesses an established political structure.

His electoral strength was demonstrated in the 2023 Nasarawa West senatorial election when, running on the platform of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, he defeated the candidate of the ruling APC.

He later returned to the APC before emerging as its 2027 governorship candidate.

His political journey makes his candidacy particularly significant.

Unlike a candidate dependent entirely on the ruling party’s structure, Wadada has previously demonstrated an ability to win an election outside the APC.

His supporters could therefore argue that zoning has produced a candidate who possesses both an established personal following and the machinery of the ruling party.

But the governorship presents a substantially different test.

Winning Nasarawa West is not the same as winning Nasarawa State.

To succeed Sule, Wadada must secure sufficient support across the state’s political, ethnic, religious and geographical divides.

The real test of the zoning arrangement will consequently be whether voters outside Nasarawa West consider the district’s claim to the governorship compelling enough to support its candidate.

Ombugadu returns to test the arrangement

Standing prominently in the way of the APC’s succession plan is the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, candidate, David Emmanuel Ombugadu.

Ombugadu is returning for another attempt at Government House after contesting in 2019 and 2023.

His 2023 performance established him as a major force in Nasarawa politics.

Governor Sule was declared winner of that election with 347,209 votes against Ombugadu’s 283,016.

The outcome subsequently triggered a prolonged legal battle.

The Nasarawa State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal initially nullified Sule’s victory and declared Ombugadu winner before the decision was reversed by the Court of Appeal. The Supreme Court eventually affirmed Sule’s election in January 2024.

Regardless of the legal arguments that surrounded the contest, the election demonstrated that the PDP retained the capacity to mount a serious challenge to the APC.

Ombugadu now returns to an election in which his major opponent carries the additional argument of rotational equity.

For the PDP candidate, therefore, one challenge will be convincing voters that the election should be decided primarily on the candidates and their programmes rather than the geographical origin of the next governor.

2023 offers warning against easy predictions

One reason the zoning question cannot be treated as conclusive is the voting behaviour witnessed in Nasarawa during the 2023 general elections.

Nasarawa voters demonstrated a willingness to distribute their support across different political parties depending on the election and candidates involved.

In the presidential election, Labour Party candidate Peter Obi won the state with 191,361 votes, ahead of APC’s Bola Tinubu, who polled 172,922 votes, while PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar secured 147,093 votes.

Weeks later, the APC retained the governorship.

The senatorial elections provided another indication of the fluidity of voter behaviour.

The APC failed to win any of Nasarawa’s three senatorial seats in that election cycle, with the SDP winning two seats and the PDP taking the third.

Wadada himself won Nasarawa West on the platform of the SDP.

Those outcomes suggest that party dominance does not automatically translate into uniform voting patterns in the state.

They also raise a question that could become central to 2027: if Nasarawa voters were prepared to vote differently across presidential, governorship and National Assembly contests in 2023, will they necessarily follow an elite-backed zoning arrangement four years later?

A crowded field beyond APC, PDP

The election is also broader than a straight APC-PDP contest.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has published the particulars of candidates nominated by political parties for the 2027 governorship election.

Apart from Wadada and Ombugadu, other names published include retired Major-General Nuhu Angbazo of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and Jonathan Gaza Gbefwi of the Labour Party.

The SDP candidacy has generated controversy.

INEC published Musa Angbazo as the party’s candidate, while the camp of former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Adamu insists that the former police chief is the authentic candidate and will ultimately be on the ballot.

The dispute could become important because Adamu had earlier resisted the zoning of the APC ticket to Nasarawa West before leaving the ruling party.

How the SDP dispute is eventually resolved could therefore have implications for the wider electoral calculation.

With multiple candidates in the race, opposition votes could be divided to the advantage of the APC.

Conversely, any significant consolidation of opposition support could increase pressure on the ruling party.

Zoning versus the ordinary voter’s priorities

Beyond political meetings, endorsements and calculations, the zoning debate faces perhaps its most difficult test at the polling units.

There is no sufficiently credible statewide opinion poll currently available to establish that zoning is the overriding consideration for Nasarawa voters ahead of the election.

The priorities of individual voters could differ substantially from those of political stakeholders.

For some residents, security may determine their votes.

For others, the economy, employment, agriculture, infrastructure, education or the performance of the outgoing administration could prove more important.

Ethnicity, religion, party loyalty, community interests and the personalities of individual candidates could equally influence voting behaviour.

A farmer in Akwanga may approach the election differently from a trader in Keffi.

A civil servant in Lafia may assess candidates using considerations different from those of a young voter in Karu.

This is where the political strength of zoning becomes difficult to measure.

An arrangement can command widespread acceptance among political leaders without necessarily becoming the decisive consideration for ordinary voters.

Can Sule transfer his influence?

Another important question will be the extent to which Governor Sule can transfer his political influence to his preferred successor.

Nigeria’s political history contains examples of outgoing governors successfully installing preferred candidates, as well as cases where voters rejected succession plans promoted by incumbents.

Sule’s endorsement gives Wadada access to the political advantages associated with the incumbent administration and APC structure.

But endorsements do not cast ballots.

The governor and APC will have to persuade voters that Wadada represents both fairness in the distribution of political power and continuity in governance.

The opposition, on the other hand, is likely to argue that the election should be a referendum on candidates rather than a ratification of an elite succession arrangement.

That contest of narratives could define the campaign.

Is it really Nasarawa West’s turn?

For advocates of zoning, the argument appears straightforward.

Nasarawa West produced Abdullahi Adamu between 1999 and 2007.

The governorship subsequently remained in Nasarawa South for 12 years under Doma and Al-Makura before moving to Nasarawa North, where Sule will have completed eight years by 2027.

On that calculation, they insist that fairness requires power to return to the West.

But opponents can equally argue that democratic elections are not governed by an automatic rotational timetable.

Every qualified candidate has the constitutional right to contest, subject to the requirements governing elections and political parties.

Ultimately, therefore, the effectiveness of zoning depends less on law than on political acceptance.

If a sufficient number of voters accept that Nasarawa West has a legitimate claim to the governorship, zoning could become one of Wadada’s strongest electoral assets.

If voters reject that reasoning, however, the arrangement may have limited influence outside party politics.

APC unity could prove decisive

The ruling party also has an internal challenge.

The process that produced Wadada did not command universal support among all the politicians who had sought the APC ticket.

The question for the party is whether grievances arising from the succession battle have been sufficiently resolved to allow it to enter the general election as a united force.

In a close election, internal divisions can be costly.

The 2023 governorship election showed that the gap between the APC and PDP could be narrow enough for defections, protest votes and voter apathy to matter.

For Wadada, therefore, winning the APC primary was only the first stage.

He must now convince supporters of defeated aspirants to work for him while simultaneously expanding his appeal beyond the ruling party.

Ombugadu’s third attempt

Ombugadu faces a different political test.

Having contested twice, the PDP candidate has substantial name recognition and an established support base.

But a third attempt also raises an inevitable question: can he expand his previous coalition sufficiently to finally cross the line?

His supporters are likely to portray 2027 as an opportunity to complete an unfinished political project following his strong showing in 2023.

His opponents will argue that Nasarawa voters have rejected his governorship ambition twice.

More importantly, Ombugadu must confront the zoning question directly.

If the sentiment that power should return to Nasarawa West gains widespread acceptance beyond APC circles, candidates from other districts could find themselves campaigning against both a political party and a power-sharing narrative.

2027 could redefine Nasarawa politics

The significance of the coming election therefore extends beyond Wadada, Ombugadu or any of the other candidates.

It could determine whether Nasarawa’s informal approach to political rotation remains relevant in an increasingly competitive electoral environment.

A Wadada victory would likely be interpreted by supporters of zoning as validation of the argument that Nasarawa West deserved another opportunity after two decades outside Government House.

A victory by a candidate from outside the favoured zone could produce a very different conclusion — that voters no longer consider political rotation sufficient reason to determine who governs the state.

There is also a third possibility.

Zoning could matter significantly without being the decisive factor.

Voters may consider geographical balance alongside competence, party affiliation, religion, ethnicity, performance and individual political appeal.

That would make the election considerably more complicated than a simple referendum on rotation.

Voters hold the final card

For now, political leaders can negotiate, governors can endorse candidates and parties can invoke fairness and equity.

But none of those calculations guarantees an electoral outcome.

The 2027 Nasarawa governorship election will ultimately be decided at polling units across the state’s 13 local government areas.

For Wadada and the APC, the task will be to transform the argument that it is Nasarawa West’s turn into votes across the state.

For Ombugadu and other opposition candidates, the challenge will be to persuade the electorate that the identity and capacity of the next governor should outweigh any informal rotational arrangement.

As Sule prepares to leave Government House after eight years, Nasarawa is consequently heading towards more than a succession election.

It is approaching a major test of one of its most persistent political assumptions.

Will voters uphold the argument that power should return to Nasarawa West?

Or will they demonstrate that, when confronted with the ballot, candidate preference can override political rotation?

The political class may have its zoning calculations, but in 2027, Nasarawa voters will give the final answer.