THE days of being caught out by potentially dangerous thunderstorms are numbered.
Pinpointing where thunder may strike is among the trickiest changes for forecasters to predict.
Thunderstorms are attributed for causing some 30,000 deaths globally between 2010 and 2019Credit: Getty
New findings could radically improve thunderstorm forecastingCredit: Getty
This is because they’re driven by chaotic atmospheric conditions, as well as tending to be small-scale and short-lived.
Thunderstorms have been blamed for causing around 30,000 deaths globally between 2010 and 2019, according World Meteorological Organization.
And it’s estimated to have cost £374billion in economic losses as a result.
But now scientists believe they’ve come up with a way to finally predict where a thunderstorm is due to hit on hot days.
“Thunderstorms can sometimes suddenly appear, seemingly ‘out of thin air’,” explained Professor Christopher Taylor, a meteorologist at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH).
“But our research has shown that where they are triggered is more predictable than was previously thought.”
The team found a link between soil moisture patterns and wind in the lowest few kilometres of the atmosphere.
Their research reveals that clouds are most likely to grow rapidly where soil moisture patterns align with wind shear, providing clues to forecasters about where thunderstorms will develop later in the day.
However, we need to firstly translate this new knowledge – aided by – into better models for predicting storms’ location.
Eventually these could suggest monitoring for such patterns to provide people with earlier warnings.
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And the benefits could save lives against sudden devastating weather changes such as flash flooding.
“This latest study can guide improvements to early warning systems for flash flooding, lightning hazards and severe wind, which will be especially beneficial for affected regions that have high populations but limited weather radar coverage,” said Dr Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop.
The research was published in the Nature journal.
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