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Sir Keir Starmer faced another significant setback today as Plaid Cymru achieved a remarkable victory in a historic Welsh by-election.
Lindsay Whittle secured the vital Caerphilly Senedd seat from Labour, marking a substantial milestone for the left-leaning nationalist party and a considerable defeat for Starmer.
Sir Keir Starmer has experienced a significant by-election defeat
Counting for the Caerphilly Senedd by-electionCredit: PA
An emotional Whittle paid homage to Hefin David, who tragically passed away in August, prompting the by-election, and remarked that he would be “a hard act to follow.”
This victory follows weeks of intense campaigning by various parties aiming to capture the Welsh constituency from Labour.
Labour has been in control of the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was established in 1999, with Caerphilly traditionally being one of its strongholds.
However, recent polls forecast that Plaid Cymru will be one of the two leading parties next year, and voter turnout has been notably high.
This may be the most intriguing by-election in 26 years of Welsh devolution, with eight candidates competing for the win.
The Caerphilly by-election saw a voter participation rate of 50.43 percent—marking the first time that turnout exceeded 50 percent for a Senedd election.
The surprising results are being interpreted as a bellwether for the Welsh parliament elections scheduled for May next year—and possibly as a reflection of the broader national sentiment.
Final Vote Count
- Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats – 497
- Anthony Cook – Gwlad – 117
- Gareth Hughes – Green Party – 516
- Gareth Potter – Welsh Conservatives – 690
- Llyr Powell – Reform UK – 12,113
- Roger Quilliam – UKIP – 79
- Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour – 3,713
- Lindsay Whittle – Plaid Cymru – 15,961
Labour’s defeat follows Reform’s success at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in July last year, along with a series of local council wins.
This only adds to the challenges facing the Prime Minister, who has been overwhelmed by a series of crises in recent months.
He has found himself on the defensive regarding migration issues, the Chinese spy scandal, and the Peter Mandelson saga.
During the overnight count, Reform candidate Llŷr Powell disclosed that his office and property had been “attacked” during his campaign.
All of this comes ahead of a critical Budget in which his Chancellor is expected to raise taxes once again.
Speculation regarding his leadership has been rampant, amid dissatisfaction within many ranks of Labour.
Wales has been governed by Labour since devolution in the 1990s, but both Reform and Plaid have set their sights firmly on the May Senedd elections.
The latest YouGov polling from September indicates that the parliament could experience a “turquoise wave.”
While Plaid Cymru leads the poll at 30 percent, Reform is closely trailing with 29 percent.
Mr. Farage has surged in the polls, riding a wave of public discontent, primarily regarding mass migration.
Nigel Farage has set his ambitions on becoming Prime MinisterCredit: Reuters
Llŷr Powell was Reform’s candidate for the Caerphilly SeneddCredit: PA
