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Labour win shock victory in Hamilton by-election defying bookies’ odds

Published on June 06, 2025 at 12:37 AM

SCOTTISH Labour have won a shock victory in the Holyrood by-election – defying bookies’ odds.

And the win is a major boost to Anas Sarwar’s hopes of beating John Swinney to Bute House at next year’s Holyrood election.

Alamy Live News. 3BGFMT4 Edinburgh Scotland, UK 05 June 2025. Anas Sarwar MSP at the Scottish Parliament for First Minister Questions.credit sst/alamy live news This is an Alamy Live News image and may not be part of your current Alamy deal . If you are unsure, please contact our sales team to check.
The win is a major boost to Anas Sarwar’s hopes of beating John Swinney to Bute House.

Scottish Labour had been written off by many, with bookies putting them third most likely to win the seat behind both the SNP and Reform.

Punters were offered odds of 11-1 on Labour before polls opened, and the SNP were 1-6 favourites, with Reform second favourites.

However the party has defied expectations and lived up to the quiet confidence from some insiders that they were always in the race.

Group of people celebrating with raised fists.
Jubilant Jackie Baillie, Anas Sarwar and Davy Russell

The victory is a stunning defeat for the SNP who believed the seat was an easy victory following the death of popular local Nats MSP Christina McKelvie.

Labour’s campaign was seen as low key and Mr Russell came in for criticism from rivals for swerving TV appearances.

A politician surrounded by journalists and cameras.
Mr Sarwar explained the reasons he believed voters backed Labour

Reacting to the victory Anas Sarwar said: “It is a tribute to a fantastic local candidate that has had to put up with pretty elitist and classist comments about him.

“But this man lives here, he is from here. The other candidates are going to leave this constituency tonight, whereas Davie is not leaving it tonight he lives here.

“He will be home with his neighbours and friends tonight who have supported him, and voted for him.

“Let’s be really clear about what has happened here tonight. I don’t just want to reflect on the result, I want to reflect on the conversations we are having on the doorstep.

“It is a demonstration of a few things. First people want a UK Labour Government to go further and faster in improving their lives.

“They want to feel that improvement in their lives and I think that is a clear message today.

“Secondly, they have had enough of this SNP Government after 18 years they have let Scotland down and let communities across the country down.

“Thirdly, they have rejected the politics of Nigel Farage and Reform and today the people of Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse have laid the first stone in that pathway to a Scottish Labour Government.”;

Two men in suits hugging.
Anas Sarwar and Davy Russell celebrate the win

Speaking on the BBC Mr Sarwar said: “Mr Sarwar said: “I think it’s important to note that we have, in this by-election, proven the pollsters wrong, the political commentators wrong, and the bookies wrong, and I think this has been one of those elections where the disconnect from the national mood music and what was actually happening on the ground was so stark.”;

Close-up of a man in a suit speaking.
Reform Deputy Leader Richard Tice at the Hamilton count

Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said: “We’re delighted with a remarkable result, just a few hundred votes away from the SNP.

“Credit where credit’s due, Labour have won tonight and one should recognise that, but no-one was predicting that we would do as well as this, to create a three-way marginal situation in Scottish politics just short of a year ahead of the Holyrood elections.

“And look, we’re thrilled to bits, our brilliant candidate Ross Lambie ran an outstanding campaign with his brilliant team, massive thanks to them.

“Of course, we’ve all got work to do, but this is a massive boost for us.”;

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