Table of Contents
- Britain's Potential to Stop Boat Crossings
- Statistics on Migrant Crossings
- Tony Smith's Five-Point Plan
- Predictions for 2026 Crossings
- Unpacking Legal Challenges
- The Need for a Tough Approach
BRITAIN could potentially stop the boats by the end of the year if the government adopts a controversial “hardball” strategy, according to the former Border Force chief.
The total number of crossings last year reached a three-year high, with Labour being accused of providing such arrivals with the “gift of open borders.”
The total number of migrants crossing the Channel reached 41,472 in 2025Credit: AFP
The number of crossings has continued to rise since 2018Credit: AFP
UK Border Force boats are required to retrieve small boats from UK waters and cannot return them to FranceCredit: Getty
A total of 41,472 migrants made the crossing, an increase from 35,816 in 2024 and 29,437 in 2023.
This figure was nine percent lower than the 2022 peak of 45,774.
Under the in August, 193 migrants were returned while 195 arrived.
Tony Smith, the former Director General of the – the UK’s law enforcement agency at the border, has outlined his strategy for addressing the migrant crisis, which has intensified since 2018.
He asserts that without decisive action, the UK’s migrant situation could spiral out of control, with unscrupulous smugglers sending even more men, women, and children on perilous journeys to the UK via the Channel.
He noted that further records would likely have been set for crossing numbers this year if not for the inclement weather in November and December, which saw boats capsized before they could leave.
“Unless we see significant changes from what we’ve experienced over the last seven years, this will persist – it requires something drastic,” Mr. Smith told The Sun.
Ex Border Force Chief Tony Smith's Five-Point Plan to Address Migrant Issues
- A “removals strategy” that fast-tracks arrivals from “safe” countries, including Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, and India, back home, which may involve negotiating similar deals to the one with Albania and potentially using threats of sanctions.
- Category A countries, such as Afghanistan and Syria, would require a “safe option,” which could involve reintroducing the Rwanda plan or a similar approach.
- The election of a decisive Prime Minister akin to Tony Abbott in Australia, who applied forthright tactics regarding arrivals.
- Withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights – Article 3 of which prevents Britain from automatically returning asylum seekers to their home countries; then “unpick” the Human Rights Act 1998 and invoke Article 31.1 of the UK-France ‘Dangerous Journeys’ Agreement.
- Shift the focus to “detain and deport” and transition from immigration bail to detention, so that the message conveyed is that new arrivals will be detained, not simply integrated into communities.
He emphasized: “You must be tough and take measures to detain and deport.”
He mentioned that a “removals strategy” must be established, similar to the 2023 agreement that allows rapid returns for those arriving from Albania, and similar agreements should be sought with other “safe” countries like Pakistan and Vietnam.
Mr. Smith stated: “These countries are not known for persecuting people – that’s how we secured the Albania deal; they guaranteed not to persecute anyone.”
He added: “This requires significant pressure in foreign policy to ensure these nations take back their citizens, and if they refuse, we may consider sanctions against them.”
Mr. Smith suggested imposing visa, financial, or foreign aid sanctions.
Regarding Category A countries, including Afghanistan and Syria, “a safe option” is necessary, which he believes should lead to the reintroduction of the Rwanda plan or a similar approach that would see asylum seekers arriving in the UK sent to Rwanda detention centers for processing.
However, he acknowledged “there is substantial opposition” to Rwanda-style legislation, which was officially abandoned in December 2025 after Labour declared it “dead and buried” on its first day in office in July
Eze Chidiebere Paul
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