Matt Fitzpatrick will be aiming for instant redemption at this week’s Valspar Championship, after missing out by a shot at the drama-packed Players.
Fitzpatrick looked a certain winner when he forged a stroke clear with two to play at Sawgrass – only for Cameron Young to turn on the after-burners, and steal the title form under the Englishman’s nose.
But it was further proof that Fitzpatrick is returning to the form that won him the 2022 US Open. And as someone who excels on the toughest tests, he should be in his element at Copperhead near Tampa, one of the hardest courses on the PGA Tour.
It is famous for its ultra-demanding finish, a three hole stretch known as The Snake Pit. Plenty of players get bitten there.
Fitzy has made a habit of squeezing in another tournament between Sawgrass and Augusta – and it is significant that he is returning to the Valspar after switching to the Texas Open for the last two years.
The Ryder Cup star missed the cut on his last visit to Copperhead, but finished in a tie for fifth the previous year. He is in much better form now, and a widely available 16-1 is not to be sniffed at.
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Fitzpatrick will not have it all his own way, even though most of the game’s biggest stars are keeping their powder dry for Augusta.
He will still face six more of the world’s top twenty, headed by seventh ranked Xander Schauffele, who finished one place behind Fitzpatrick at Sawgrass.
Schauffele’s third place was a much-needed return to form for the double Major winner, who has not looked himself since tearing a stomach muscle at the start of last year.
But Sawgrass is clearly a course where he feels comfortable. He has finished runner-up twice at the Players, whereas form figures of 12-5-12 on three previous visits to Tampa suggests a general 11-1 quote is not great value.
I prefer the chances of another player near the top of the market, defending champion Viktor Hovland. He can be backed at 14-1, which looks fair.
But possibly the standout bet is the 20-1 on offer for Jacob Bridgeman, who was third behind Hovland here a year ago.
Bridgeman broke into the world’s top twenty by winning the Genesis, and has since finished T18 at Bay Hill and claimed a share of fifth last week. The competition is a lot weaker this time.
Course form counts for a lot at Copperhead, with quite a few repeat winners and plenty more who have contended on a few occasions.
That also brings in Ryo Hisatsune, an old favourite of this column, who has delivered profitable each way returns at big odds quite a few times.
The bookies have woken up to the fact that the 23 year old Japanese player is an emerging talent, and 33-1 is probably the best you will get this time. But a T4 here last year and an impressive T13 at Sawgrass means that is still worth taking.
Bud Cauley, who shared fourth with Histasune 12 months ago, made headlines with a final round ace at the Players. He appeals among the longshots, at 80-1, along with 66-1 chances Aaron Rai and Austin Smotherman.
The second staging of the Hainan Classic is woefully short on star status. Even last year’s winner and joint runner-up, Marco Penage and Kristoffer Reitan, are both in Tampa, after securing their PGA Tour cards last season.
If you must have an interest, Frenchman Martin Couvra could be the man to be on, at 33-1. The Turkish Airlines Open winner finished fifth here last year despite a poor final round.
Sean Crocker, who shared second with Reitan last year, is available at 40-1. And on his best form, Niklas Neergard Miller would make 28-1 look pretty generous.
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