Scottie Scheffler’s last minute withdrawal from the Houston Open plunged the market into chaos.
Scheffler had been quoted as low as 3-1 to bounce back from a couple of mediocre performances when he failed to make the top 20, with defending champion Min Woo Lee next best at around 20-1.
Aussie hotshot Lee heads the restructured market at around 14-1, with emerging American star Chris Gotterup – who had already won twice on the PGA Tour this year – next best at 18s.
But Lee will find conditions in Houston very different to 13 months ago, when he held off a two-pronged challenge from Scheffler and Gary Woodland to ease home by a shot.
Lee took advantage of saturated conditions last year, and aimed at every flag on his way to a tournament record 20 under par.
It will be a lot firmer and faster this time, and the winning score will probably be closer to half of Lee’s total. So his title defence could easily be scuppered by his naturally attacking style.
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The game’s bombers are expected to prosper, on a par 70 that is the third longest course on the PGA roster, at 7,475 yards – which should have the English duo of Jordan Smith and Marco Penge licking their lips.
Both men give it a real smack, and their performances in finishing third and fourth behind fellow Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick at the Valspar – over a similarly tough track – offers real hope of one of them claiming a breakthrough victory.
Penge, who won three times on the DP World Tour last year while finishing runner-up to Rory McIlroy in the Race to Dubai. He also caught the eye with a 66-64 start to the Genesis on his way to a top twenty there.
He is clearly taking a liking to the US scene, so 28-1 looks fair. And even though Smith is not a serial winner, it is surprising to see him at a best-priced 70-1 this week.
Most of the players near the top of the market have question marks surrounding them.
World No 10 Gotterup, for example, has definitely cooled off since his second win of 2026 in Phoenix, with a missed cut at the Genesis and a tie for 56th at Sawgrass last time out.
So smaller stakes on some of those lower down the list could be the answer – and five time Major champion Brooks Koepka fits the bill at 22-1.
Koepka has not made much noise since leaving LIV to rejoin the PGA Tour. But top 20 finishes in his last three starts are encouraging. He shot 65-65 here over the weekend when finishing fifth a few years ago, so he knows how to play this course.
Stephen Jaeger, who held off Scheffler to win here in 2024, showed glimpses of that form when he finished in a share of seventh at the Valspar. Odds of 60-1 are worth taking on that evidence.
And a final word on the Valspar. David Lipsky’s effort in finishing just a shot behind Fitzpatrick seems to have been totally discounted by the bookies, who have priced him up around 175-1.
Lipsky is not the most consistent golfer in the game, but he has won twice in Europe and clocked up a couple of third place finishes in the States last year. So he is also worth a small interest.
The DP World’s offering, the Hero Indian Open, also promises to be a stern test. Eugenio Chacarra was one of only three players to finish below par when he took the title last year.
Chacarra’s return will be totally overshadowed by the appearance of Arnold Palmer Invitational winner Akshay Bhatia – born in California, but of Indian heritage.
Bhatia followed that victory at Bay Hill with a highly respectable T13 finish at The Players, and he is in a different league to the golfers he takes in New Delhi.
It would be tempting to side with Bhatia if his price was a bit longer than the 7-1 generally on offer – so slight preference is for David Puig, who heads here while the LIV circuit takes a short break.
After his breakthrough win at the Australian PGA four months ago Puig impressed in Dubai, and his share of sixth in LIV South Africa last weekend was his third top ten in his last five LIV outings. At 11-1, he is the real eye-catcher.
Casey Jarvis returns to action, and at 18-1 he must be followed while his hot streak continues – two wins and a runner-up finish in his last three starts.
A final hole bogey pushed Martin Couvra out of the each way places at last week’s Hainan Classic.
He could make amends at 30-1, while Marcus Armitage and Joost Luiten – both available around 40-1 – and 90-1 shot Dylan Fritelli are worth a second look.
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