Table of Contents
- House Approval of MTEF/FSP
- Divergence with the Senate
- Oil Price Benchmark
- Committee Recommendations
- Speaker's Defense
- Senate's Position
The House of Representatives approved the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) on Thursday, establishing a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
This approval paves the way for a disparity with the Senate as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu prepares to present a budget of N54.4 trillion on Friday, December 19, 2025.
The benchmark accepted by the House aligns with the figure previously proposed by the Executive, even amid concerns regarding the volatility of the global oil market.
This stance sharply contrasts with that of the Senate, which had previously reviewed and lowered the oil price benchmark for 2026 to $60 per barrel, resulting in conflicting fiscal assumptions between the two chambers as the 2026 budget preparations intensify.
It is noteworthy that the House Committee on Finance and National Planning had initially suggested a lower benchmark of $60 per barrel for 2026, arguing that a conservative estimate would help safeguard government revenues against potential fluctuations in global oil prices during peak periods.
However, in defense of the House’s decision, Speaker Tajudeen Abbas warned that reducing the benchmark without thorough modeling of its impact on revenue, borrowing, and overall government expenditure could lead to funding gaps. He cautioned that such shortfalls might ultimately necessitate increased domestic revenue mobilization or additional borrowing.
Meanwhile, according to DAILY POST, the Senate not only lowered the 2026 oil benchmark to $60 per barrel but also maintained slightly higher projections of $65 and $70 per barrel for 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Senators contended that these adjustments were essential to shield the economy from external price shocks and to promote more conservative and realistic revenue forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the approved oil price benchmark for the MTEF/FSP?
The House of Representatives approved a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel for the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.
How does the House's benchmark compare to the Senate's?
The House's approved benchmark of $64.85 per barrel contrasts with the Senate's reduced benchmark of $60 per barrel for 2026.
What concerns were raised regarding the oil price benchmark?
Concerns were raised about the volatility of the global oil market and the potential impact of a lower benchmark on government revenues.
Eze Chidiebere Paul
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