Former Governor of Kaduna State and chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nasir el-Rufai, recently stirred the hornet’s nest when he alleged that Nigeria would likely have another Paul Biya of Cameroon in President Bola Tinubu if Nigerians did not wake up from their long slumber.
The former governor had warned that President Tinubu might attempt to rule Nigeria for life, as Paul Biya did in Cameroon, if Nigerian citizens failed to unite and resist him.
He handed down the warning in a statement, where he passionately urged Nigerians to rise above political, ethnic and religious divisions and come together in a collective effort to safeguard the future of democracy in the country.
According to him, Tinubu’s long-standing claims of fighting for democracy and true federalism were nothing but deception. He accused the Tinubu administration of centralising power at the federal level rather than devolving it to the states and local governments.
Part of the statement read: “All those years, when you heard him saying we are for democracy, were all fake. The claims that he was fighting for true federalism were all lies. What we are seeing today is a government that wants to centralise everything.
“The sum total is that we are now facing an evil of such a large proportion in the history of this country. If we do not come together and put an end to this administration in 2027, Tinubu will try to stay in power permanently. He will be president for life.”
However, el-Rufai’s comment has been generating reactions from different quarters, including the presidency, the All Progressives Congress, APC, organisations and Nigerians.
While the presidency and the APC have dismissed the comment as mere panic-driven propaganda, describing the former governor as a frustrated politician, many Nigerians are analysing the seriousness of the warning and the future of the country.
Reacting to the comment, the presidency rejected el-Rufai’s assertion, saying it was unfounded and ridiculous.
In a statement on his official X account @aonanuga1955, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, dismissed the allegation as mere panic-driven propaganda, reaffirming that President Tinubu is a committed democrat who respects the constitutional two-term limit.
“President Tinubu is a democrat who does not intend to stay in office beyond May 28, 2031, when re-elected in 2027,” Onanuga said.
He emphasised that el-Rufai’s comment was that of an alarmist, baseless and stemmed from a political delusion.
He also suggested that el-Rufai’s remarks were prompted by frustration over the widespread support Tinubu continues to enjoy in the Northern region, especially after his well-attended visit to Kaduna recently.
“After reports of the grand reception President Tinubu received in Kaduna last Friday, el-Rufai was clearly surprised by the depth of support the President continues to enjoy in the North. This stands in stark contrast to his narrative that the region has abandoned the President,” Onanuga stated.
He equally accused the former governor of using the life presidency allegation as a distraction from the failure of his efforts and those of his new political allies to obstruct Tinubu’s bid for re-election in 2027.
He called on the Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani to engage with el-Rufai, suggesting that he might benefit from professional counselling to overcome what he described as recent hallucinations and political fabrications concerning Tinubu and the 2027 election.
The Presidency reiterated its firm commitment to democratic principles, assuring Nigerians that President Tinubu would step down upon completion of his lawful term.
In a similar vein, the Lagos State Chapter of the APC equally slammed the former Kaduna State Governor for his comment suggesting that Tinubu was plotting a life presidency, describing it as mischievous.
In a statement on Monday by the Lagos APC spokesman, Mogaji Seye Oladejo, the party dismissed the claim as mischievous and reckless, emphasising Tinubu’s life-long commitment to democracy.
Oladejo referenced President Tinubu’s role in Nigeria’s pro-democracy struggles of the 1990s, notably his involvement with the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), and emphasised his stance against military dictatorship, risking his personal freedom for the cause.
He described el-Rufai’s claim as laughable and shameful, given Tinubu’s consistent defence of constitutionalism and opposition to tenure elongation by past leaders.
According to the APC, President Tinubu’s fidelity to Nigeria’s constitution is proven and unquestionable. The party stressed that Nigeria’s democracy is robust with term limits and checks and balances, insisting that the notion of a life presidency was an unfounded conspiracy theory.
The party accused el-Rufai of insulting the President and Nigerian people by spreading such allegations, insisting that el-Rufai was prone to political double-speak driven by personal interests.
The party reminded Nigerians of el-Rufai’s own record in Kaduna, suggesting that he manipulated laws and institutions for personal power consolidation, and labelling his accusations against Tinubu as hypocritical given his background.
Oladejo further contrasted Tinubu’s democratic credentials with el-Rufai’s perceived lack thereof, pointing out Tinubu’s focus on serving Nigeria through economic restructuring, security strengthening and institution building.
He said: “President Tinubu is a life-long democrat. His political journey is rooted in the pro-democracy struggles of the 1990s, when he stood shoulder to shoulder with other patriots in NADECO, risking his freedom and safety to end military dictatorship. To now suggest that the same man who resisted tyranny is scheming to perpetuate himself in office is both laughable and shameful.
“Tinubu has consistently defended constitutionalism. At no time in his long public service record has he ever supported tenure elongation. On the contrary, he openly opposed attempts by past leaders to extend their stay beyond constitutional limits. His fidelity to the Constitution is tested, proven and unquestionable.
“Nigeria’s democracy is stronger than any individual’s ambition. The constitution provides for term limits, checks and balances, making the idea of life presidency nothing but an idle conspiracy theory.
“By spreading such lies, el-Rufai insults not only the President but also the Nigerian people, who are the ultimate custodians of democracy.
“This is another case of political mischief by el-Rufai. Nigerians have come to know him as a man of double-speak, who says one thing today and the exact opposite tomorrow, depending on where his personal interest lies. It is unfortunate that someone who once hailed President Tinubu as a visionary leader has now chosen the path of petty blackmail.”
But, the thinking in some quarters is that rather than dismiss el-Rufai’s claim with a wave of the hand as the presidency and the APC had done, the allegation needs to be critically analyzed.
Those on this side of the divide are saying that for el-Rufai, who worked his hands out to ensure Tinubu’s victory in the 2023 election, to turn around in less than two and a half years, and accuse the same man he work for of plotting to remain in power for life, means that he knows something that most Nigerians do not know and should not be dismissed without proper interrogation.
Dr. Sabiu Ibrahim, a Katsina-based educationist believes that el-Rufai has spoken the minds of millions of Nigerians.
He said the National Assembly has become an extension of the executive under President Tinubu, doing his bidding at all times and daring Nigerians to do their worst.
He also said the judiciary has been captured and now in the pocket of the President and equally kowtowing to his whims and caprices.
Speaking to DAILY POST, he said: “El-Rufai is correct to have warned that unless Nigerians come together to stop Tinubu in 2027, he was on his way to becoming a life president in Nigeria. Why do I think so?
“The National Assembly no longer does its oversight functions; instead the lawmakers have all been browbeaten into line, always doing what the president wants.
“This simply means that just as the President has been having his way with whatever bill he has presented to them, no matter how Nigerians kicked against them; he would one day wake up with a bill to make himself a life president and they would gladly oblige him.
“Secondly, the judiciary which prides itself as the last hope of the common man, no longer has any feeling for the common man.
“The judiciary has been pocketed and only acts to please certain individuals instead of interpreting the law and ensuring that justice is served, irrespective of who is involved.
“For instance, when the president declared a state of emergency in Rivers State and suspended the governor and the House of Assembly for six months without first seeking the approval of the national assembly as the constitution stipulates, about 11 governors on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, went to the Supreme Court, seeking the interpretation of the constitution.
“They wanted the Supreme Court to determine whether the president has the right to suspend a constitutional and democratically elected institution as he did in Rivers State, but the Supreme Court sat on the case, never heard it even once until the six months emergency rule elapsed.
“What other evidence do you need to know that if Tinubu wants to become a life president, it will be a walk in the park and there is nothing anybody can do about it? Since the other two arms of government that ought to checkmate his excesses through oversight have been conquered and now in his pocket, is it not obvious that el-Rufai could be privy to some sinister plots that Nigerians are not aware of?
“If you ask me, I would advise Nigerians to listen to el-Rufai before it becomes too late.”
Speaking along the same line, a Lagos-based lawyer, Kayode Adenuga insisted that what el-Rufai said should not be disputed by any close watcher of political developments in Nigeria, particularly in the last 10 years or thereabout.
He said during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan, a litre of fuel was N87, a bag of rice was about N9000 and Naira to dollar exchange rate was just about N195 but Nigerians took to the street to say that Jonathan must go, because according to them, he was clueless and had brought untold hardship to Nigerians. Civil society groups, men of God, politicians, including our current president, all marched on the streets of Lagos, Abuja and other cities across Nigeria, protesting to ensure that Jonathan was removed from office.
“Today, Nigerians are buying a litre of fuel at over N1000 in some places, yet nobody is complaining.
“A bag of rice is going for N80, 000 and above and everybody is okay with it. Naira to dollar exchange hovers between N1, 450 and N1, 500, with insecurity at its worst level.
“In fact, like the Hobbesian state, life has become poor, nasty, short and brutish, yet nobody is protesting; Nigerians only murmur in their closets and wear a cheerful look outside. What do you call that?
“Let me tell you, the fact that hardship in the land has gotten to this unbearable level and people are still enduring means that Tinubu has captured everybody.
“First, he removed the fuel subsidy and its immediate negative effect was resounding. Prices of everything, ranging from transport costs to food, house rent and school fees, among others, immediately hit the roof top, rising beyond the reach of many Nigerians and nobody protested.
“Secondly, he came with taxes, almost taxing Nigerians to death and nobody is protesting. We are just smiling and suffering, helpless and praying that God will come down from heaven to save us.
“Thirdly, he is working hard to ensure that no opposition party is intact going into the 2027 election to challenge him because he knows that if free and fair contest is allowed, he would be roundly beaten at the polls.
“So, with the development so far, is it not clear that Nigerians have resigned to fate? Nigerians have been captured and they can’t do anything except to murmur in their closets but smile falsely in the open.
“Except he doesn’t want a life presidency, otherwise, el-Rufai is spot on. Although I am not a fan of el-Rufai because of what he did in Southern Kaduna as governor, that is not to say that when he is saying the obvious, we should close our eyes to that.
“No, that will amount to shooting ourselves in the foot. He has said it as it is and Nigerians should better listen to him,” he stated.
Also contributing to the discourse, a businessman, Anthony Chidiebere, said el-Rufai has just said what many Nigerians are afraid of saying. He said: “Why is anybody surprised at what el-Rufai said?
“Is he not telling the truth? Is the handwriting not clearly written on the walls? The signs are there, except we want to continue deceiving ourselves. Instead of listening to him and planning on how to prevent the Cameroonian experience in Nigeria, we are busy listening to the reactions from the presidency, the APC and some selfish politicians and individuals.”
But, apart from the presidency and the APC, there are those who disagree with el-Rufai, particularly on the allegation that Tinubu is centralising everything.
Those on this side of the argument would like to draw el-Rufai’s attention to Tinubu’s support for the creation of state police.
They also reminded him of the local government autonomy which President Tinubu championed.
Leading this group is a social scientist, Clement Olaniyi.
He told DAILY POST: “Well, el-Rufai may be right in some other areas but saying that Tinubu wants to centralize everything is not correct.
“Has he forgotten that it was Tinubu who ensured that local governments now have autonomy? He should also remember that the President has thrown his weight behind the creation of state police.
“This cannot be the character of somebody who wants to centralize power. At least, he should acknowledge that.
“But on other areas like muzzling the opposition political parties, I think he is right there.
“President Tinubu should just allow the opposition to breathe; that makes democracy healthy and robust.
“But this constant crisis in almost all the parties except the APC could be misinterpreted to mean what el-Rufai has just alleged.”
