"Southampton's High-Stakes Gamble: How It Could Impact Man City in the FA Cup Semi-Final and the Star Pep Guardiola Can't Afford to Bench"

THIS Saturday new Premier League leaders Manchester City face Southampton in the FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley.

The Saints are chasing promotion back to the top flight after finishing dead last in the Prem last season.

Man City boss Pep Guardiola may see the FA Cup as a ‘second string’ to the Prem Credit: Getty Man City play Southampton on Saturday after moving top of the league midweek Credit: Getty

They’re in unreal form too, boasting a 20-game unbeaten streak.

But Man City will be looking for a repeat of 2023 where they beat Sheffield United 3-0 in the semi-finals before being crowned champs after an all-Manchester final.

It could also be the beginning of a cascade of trophies if they follow the blueprints from 2023.

After winning the three seasons ago, Pep Guardiola’s men stormed to a third-straight league title before lifting the trophy following a 1-0 win over Inter.

But before they can think about doing another Treble (albeit with the League Cup replacing the Champions League) – they need to beat Southampton.

Will City change the whole team vs Saints?

The romance of Cup is easy to fall into.

And the question of whether Southampton can pull off another giant killing is impossible to ignore.

The semi-final may be a second string for City, but even if Pep makes 11 changes, then they still have enough to beat the Southern outfit.

Southampton can prepare for City’s front five pushing forward to make their 3-2-5 attacking shape – as they seem to have continued over the last few weeks.

But even if the shape remains the same, the plays will change based on available personnel.

, for example, isn’t being left out because he’s not good enough.

It’s because the system doesn’t need him.

In Pep’s setup, every flank needs one player to stay wide and one to drift inside.

Foden is at his best doing the latter to float into central pockets to create and score.

But with hugging the touchline and an inverted full-back like stepping into midfield, those inside spaces are already occupied.

Add in City’s ‘rest defence’ shape where a full-back tucks in instead of overlapping, and there’s no natural role left for him.

Southampton beat Arsenal in the quarter-finals and face City next at Wembley Credit: Getty

At one point in the season, teams would use a mid-type block to deal with City, but it has reverted to a low block.

This favours the likes of and Bernardo Silva – as well as and Doku holding the wings.

Though it may be that Foden comes in for Cherki. But O’Reilly cannot be left out.

And if is not fit then just plays at right back.

Southampton could be looking at a side who has made nine changes.

How can Saints hurt Man City?

When Tonda Eckert first arrived at St Mary’s, he went with a back three and that brought a short-term bounce with six or seven games unbeaten – but it quickly fell apart.

He pivoted back to a 4-2-3-1 and stabilised everything.

Southampton boss Tonda Eckert will hope for another giant killing on Saturday Credit: Getty

It suited the players far better, particularly at centre-half, where Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Jack Stephens look far more comfortable as a pair than in a three.

The recall of a natural right-back also removed the need to force a back three in the first place and gave the team proper balance across the pitch.

Further forward, the system unlocks the No.10 role, allowing that central creator to drift, find pockets, and dictate play.

Out of possession, it has been about intensity with a high press and an aggressive approach that fits the .

Out of possession, Southampton are going to sit in a deep block.

But what’s interesting is how they shape their midfield.

The left-sided player tucks inside, almost becoming a fourth central midfielder, which creates a really compact box in the middle of the pitch.

That shuts off the central areas completely and they’re being pushed wide.

The Saints boast a streak of 20 games unbeaten Credit: Getty

Against Arsenal, Southampton were happy to let the ball go out to the full-backs.

They basically told them to cross it and they backed themselves to deal with it with their big centre-halves in the box.

On the flip side, Manchester City will have the ball for most of the game.

They will squeeze right up the pitch in a high line as they try to pin Southampton in, and that’s where the risk lies.

The moment Southampton win it back, the instruction is to go forward early and hit the space in behind – especially into those wide areas.

That creates a bit of a game of chicken for City’s defenders because they will have to decide whether to step out, engage, or hold and risk the runner getting in behind them.

And if they get that decision wrong, Southampton are in.

City would have to react quickly when the ball turns over, move across and block the counter-attacking lanes.

Why was Haaland dropping deep versus Burnley?

The general assumption is that would either be trying to get in the box or trying to get on the end of a cross.

But by hanging back with either Cherki or Silva going forward, the Norwegian has to be picked up by one of the midfielders.

Then if Haaland becomes the extra man, he can crash into the box with no one directly marking him.

And this plays into his touches from the Arsenal game.

If Haaland begins to drop deeper, then the players marking him may feel that they can squeeze up, meaning that he can fire forward with a couple of yards advantage.

And that is what happened with and .