I was on Obasanjo’s internet earlier this month, scouring through X for some social listening so I could get a pulse on the state of play when I stumbled upon a very interesting comment from one of my faves in response to what appeared to be an unfounded accusation with a sprinkle of bigotry. This was his response: “If you put 100 black ants and 100 red ants in a jar, nothing happens. But if you shake the jar, the ants start killing each other. Each red ant will believe the other black ant is the enemy, but the real enemy is the one who shook the jar.”;; I thought that was profound.
It reminded me of the world we’re living in, how the real power brokers operate under deep shadow conditions. The most powerful people are not those you see on television or the cover of magazines; they are men in grey suits who pull the strings behind the scenes. In the intelligence community, this approach or strategy is known as cloak and dagger; the ability to influence outcomes without being detected.
Then a light bulb went off in my head, I drew a straight line from the anecdote to Africa. If I were an intelligence chief for some imaginary country and I was assigned a hypothetical covert mission to destabilise Africa, how would I do it such that my fingerprints are not found on the crime scene by even the finest forensic experts? Simple, I would go for the killshot by targeting seven vital aspects of the continent and watch the controlled chaos from afar.
On Leadership
If truly everything rises and falls on leadership, then I would be very interested in the leadership recruitment exercise of African countries. My concern would not be whether such processes are free and fair; it’s far more important that the leader who emerges is in alignment with my strategic interests. If I have to deploy psychological warfare, targeted control of politicians, espionage, media manipulation, economic pressure or other tools in the box to achieve this outcome, all is fair in love and war. Such leaders must be willing to implement whatever policy advice I put forward, even if it’s to the detriment of their own people. I will endorse such horrible policies and give them diplomatic cover, which signals to others that such a leader is compliant. I can’t afford to have a leader who has a heart for the people, I have to scuttle their emergence at all costs. If such leaders are already in power, I find numerous ways of destabilising their governments. I cannot afford functioning governments that could upset my preferred reality.
On Unity and Cohesion
The oldest trick in the bag is to divide and conquer. I would stop at nothing in ensuring that Africa and Africans never unite. Whether it’s through languages, currency, borders, religion or geopolitics. If they are always fighting themselves, they will never have the time and presence of mind to think about demanding good governance or thinking about development. I would get them to litigate old grievances every now and then, reopen fault lines and weaponise divisive narratives. Encourage them to fight supremacy wars and embrace tribal perspectives that marginalise large swaths of their populations. One more thing, I can’t afford to have leaders who galvanise the people and inspire people to be more loyal to their countries than primordial sentiments.
On Natural Resources
This is one of my favourites. It’s so overt that it’s covert. Allow them to continue exporting raw materials but never processed goods; the smartest way to keep them down the pecking order is by ensuring they never industrialise. They can have the gold but can’t have gold reserves, I’ll let them brag about being the largest exporters of crude oil as long as they don’t have functional refineries. They can sell all the cocoa they want, as long as they don’t produce chocolate, I’m good. If I get lucky, I could get some big corporations to control the mining rights of the rare earth minerals and oil fields in a way where the sovereign wealth is lifted from the ground and into my pockets through special purpose vehicles. Any leader who floats the idea of nationalising resources is clearly not my guy. I would mockingly refer to such countries as equal development partners, but all they get is aid, not trade; if they do get any type of trade, I would dictate the terms. Worse, if they think of allowing the belt to hit the road, I will accuse them of poking the bear.
On Economy
Political independence means nothing without economic power, so my focus will be to keep their GDP as low as I possibly can. I will routinely accuse their economic chiefs that their currency is overvalued and needs to be devalued. The critical infrastructure that supports production, such as electricity, will remain erratic and epileptic, and I will encourage high prices to create energy poverty. Did I mention high taxes for services that never get delivered? Yeah, that’s on brand for me. I would ensure they never escape the debt trap, they would get loans at ridiculous rates and be tied with untoward conditions. If things are looking too good, I could orchestrate and fund chaos to chase away investors and deter capital formation. Not forgetting aid, they will get more of it than mutually-beneficial trade agreements – the goal is for them to remain continually dependent. Keep the larger population poor and vulnerable so they’re not thinking of thriving but surviving.
On Culture (Education and History)
Culture is not just the way of life for a group of people, it’s also how they are engineered. If I wanted to influence how they think, one way to do that is to infiltrate their curriculum such that the average student is wired to process information a certain way. It’s not in my interest for a forward-thinking curriculum that makes the citizens competitive, I want them to learn just enough to be on the lower rungs of the global ladder. I want their youth to grow up thinking they are inferior and that their culture is not cool. They should feel that no matter how great their songs are, until I give them an award, what they think of themselves is not valid. I would have made them adopt my culture by convincing them that local means inferior and that they are incapable of excellence. I would so rubbish the system that what I offer would be considered the only viable path forward.
On Security
The first idea I would sell to them is that they cannot defend themselves against external aggression without my involvement. I would sell them weapons, but never the technology to manufacture theirs. I would convince them that military bases are necessary to maintain stability, even though I would never allow them in my own country. Keep their military assets stale and ensure that they will always need foreign intervention to resolve tensions. I would covertly fund coups that are favourable but publicly condemn those that aren’t. I would fund separatists, opposition and violent groups to cause chaos and use it as a negotiating tool to have my way. War for me is preferable to peace; how else will the military-industrial complex survive?
On Aspirations
I would use the media to mischaracterise the continent, control narratives and own influential media assets for purposes of propaganda and tell their stories for them. I would force-feed the rest of the world with dark and dystopian narratives of the continent, instead of the exploits of excellence–I would push images of poverty and hopelessness. Such that escapism with become a goal for the brilliant ones, not an interrogation and addressing of the actual problems. I would encourage the factors that make accessing good healthcare virtually exclusive to the rich and a prayer point for the poor. I would head-hunt their geniuses and incentivise them to never return home. I would water down their successes and explain them away, or at best insert a cameo on how my generosity was the real needle mover.
Wisdom suggests to the red ants that the black ants are not their enemies, and also to the black ants that the red ants are not their enemies. The real enemies are those who are constantly shaking the jar. Selah.
