HE is promising a political earthquake when polls shut at 10pm tonight – but will Nigel Farage’s big talk meet reality in the local elections?
It is the first time any voters have been to the ballot box since Sir took office last July, and are braced for a bloody nose.
Not least in Runcorn, in a tight by- election battle triggered after one of Starmer’s MPs literally thumped someone.
Despite needing to overturn a 14,696 majority, the bookies have ’s .
Eyebrows have been raised that Sir Keir has not visited the constituency during the campaign, typically a sign that his advisers are privately readying for a bad result.
Defeat in Runcorn would confirm the PM’s worst nightmare — that are just as dangerous to Labour as they are to the .
That is before more than 1,600 council seats are in play across 23 local authorities in .
The latest polling shows Reform, Labour and the Tories all virtually neck and neck at around 24 per cent.
But according to More In Common, Reform are on 26 in the areas that have elections today, with the Tories on 25 and Labour on 18.
Almost 40 per cent of those who voted Labour last July, and are planning to vote in these smaller elections, say they will vote for another party.
Were that repeated in 2029, the Government would be toast and the British electoral map upended. With a historically unpopular government less than a year in power, Reform have grand plans to realign British in a straight fight between them and the reds, leaving the Tories for dust.
This is the first big test to see whether that grand plan is on course, or just a pipe dream.
If Farage falls short in Runcorn or fails to seize control of some key battleground areas, there will be plenty of heckles that he is all talk.
But there could be plenty of shouting and blame games on all sides.
Honeymoon over
Today’s are set to be particularly gruelling for the Tories and struggling Conservative leader , who could lose up to 500 councillors across England.
The Tories go into the elections defending the most seats and are therefore equally expected to lose the most.
Pollster Lord Hayward reckons Ms Badenoch will land on around 375-435 councillors, down 475-525 from 2021.
The main beneficiary of the Tory slump is expected to be Mr Farage, who is forecast to snaffle between 400 to 450 council seats, largely in the Midlands and North.
council is also one to watch, with Reform hoping to pick up a decent chunk of disaffected Tories as they did in the .
Meanwhile, the PM is in for a disappointing night as an expected underwhelming result would confirm his honeymoon from last year’s thumping general election win is truly over.
But if things are not too bad for Labour, if they bag some 280 seats, then there is essentially no change — although they would have hoped to win some of the seats expected to fall to Reform.
Party strategists have been managing expectations by insisting the council seats up for grabs are not their naturally fertile terrain.
In a sign of our new fractured political landscape, Labour, the Tories, Reform, the Greens and Lib Dems are all in with a shot
But keep an eye on , which Labour is defending. The party currently commands a sizeable majority on the authority, and losing that would be big.
Also note the handful of high-profile skirmishes as several mayoralties are contested. The most closely watched election is in , where Reform is hoping to strike another blow on the Tories.
Former Conservative minister turned Reform defector is the bookies’ favourite in a traditionally true blue shire.
Victory would be seized upon by Mr Farage as a shifting of the sands in -voting heartlands.
Also interesting pollsters is the five-horse race that is shaping up in the West of England mayoral election.
In a sign of our new fractured political landscape, Labour, the Tories, Reform, and are all in with a shot.
With Sir Keir Starmer’s grip on broad but shallow, expect plenty of runes to read.
Over to you, voters . . . 
FIVE KEY MOMENTS TO WATCH
Runcorn by-election
Result time: 3am
What: Triggered when Labour MP quit after a for .
Verdict: Reform win would be their first in a Labour seat and show Farage can beat Sir Keir in Red Wall heartlands.
Richter scale: 9
Lincolnshire mayor
Result time: 3.30am
What: Two-horse race between the Tories and Reform deep in a Brexit-voting true blue shire.
Verdict: Win for Reform’s Dame Andrea Jenkyns – a former Conservative minister – would be a sign of the shifting sands towards the party from disaffected Tories.
Richter scale: 7
Hull & East Yorks mayor
Result time: 2.30pm
What: Former gold medal-winning boxer is hoping to bag this for Reform.
Verdict: Winning in this part of the country – where Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all enjoy some level of support – would be a big coup.
Richter scale: 6
Doncaster council
Result time: 3pm
What: This Red Wall seat is the only majority council that Labour are defending in the elections.
Verdict: Labour is facing a major offensive from Reform, who are smelling a local election upset in this working-class stronghold.
Richter scale: 8
Kent council
Result time: 7pm
What: The Tories have a hefty majority, but are facing a pincer movement from Reform and Labour, who made strides in the county at the last General Election.
Verdict: Haemorrhaging votes on both her flanks would cap off a grim day for Kemi Badenoch.
Richter scale: 6
