US election 2020 polls: Who dey ahead – Trump or Biden?

US election 2020 polls: Who dey ahead - Trump or Biden?
  • By The Visual and Data Journalism Team
  • BBC News

Voters for America go decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump go remain for di White House for another four years.

Di Republican president dey face challenge from di Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, wey dey best known as Barack Obama vice-president but wey don dey US politics since di 1970s.

As election day dey near, polling companies go dey try to check di mood of di nation by asking voters which candidate dem prefer.

We go dey keep track of those polls here and try to work out wetin dem fit and no fit tell us about who go win di election.

How di presidential candidates dey do nationally?

National polls na good guide to how popular one candidate dey across di country as a whole, but dem no necessarily be good way to predict di result of di election.

For 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton lead for di polls and win nearly three million more votes dan Donald Trump, but she still lose – dat na because di US dey us di electoral college system, so winning di most votes no dey always win you di election.

With dat one, Joe Biden don dey ahead of Donald Trump for di national polls for most of di year. He dey around 50% in recent weeks and bin don get 10-point lead sometimes.

By contrast, for 2016 di polls no too clear and na just small couple of percentage points separate Mr Trump and im rival den Hillary Clinton for several points as election day near.

Which states go decide dis election?

As Mrs Clinton discover for 2016, di number of votes you win dey less important dan where you win dem.

Most states nearly always vote di same way, meaning say in reality na just small number of states where both candidates stand di chance of winning. These na di places where di election go dey won and lost and dem dey known asi di battleground states.

For di electoral college system di US dey use to elect im president, each state dey get a number of votes based on its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes dey up for grabs, so one candidate need to hit 270 to win.

As the map above show, some battleground states get more electoral college votes on offer dan others so candidates dey often spend a lot more time dey campaign dia.

Who dey lead for di battleground states?

At di moment, polls for di battleground states look good for Joe Biden, but a long way still dey to go and things fit change very quickly, especially wen Donald Trump dey involved.

Di polls suggest say Mr Biden get big leads for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three industrial states wia im Republican rival win by margins of less dan 1% to get victory for 2016.

But na di battleground states where Mr Trump win big for 2016 na im e campaign team go dey most worried about. Im winning margin for Iowa, Ohio and Texas dey between 8-10% back den but he dey neck-and-neck with Mr Biden in all three at di moment.

Those poll numbers fit maybe help explain im decision to replace im re-election campaign manager for July and im regular reference to “fake polls”.

Betting markets, however, no dey write off Mr Trump just yet. Di latest odds still give am about one in three chance of winning on 3 November.

Coronavirus don affect Trump numbers?

Di coronavirus pandemic don dominate headlines for di US since di start of di year and di response to President Trump’ actions dey divided along party lines.

Support for im approach go high by mid-March after he declare national emergency and make $50 billion available to states to stop di spread of di virus. At dis point, 55% of Americans approve im actions, according to data from Ipsos, one leading polling company.

But any support e bin get from Democrats disappear afta dat, while Republicans continue to dey back dia president.

Di most recent data, however, suggest say even im own supporters don begin to question im response as states in di south and di west of di kontri don dey deal with new outbreaks of di virus. Republican support don fall to78% by early July.

Dis may explain why he dey less optimistic about coronavirus recently, with warning say di situation go “get worse before e get better”

E also wear face mask for di first time recently and call on Americans to wear dem, say “dem go get effect” and show “patriotism”.

One leading model wey experts produce for University of Washington predict di death toll go done pass 250,000 by election day.

We fit trust di polls?

E dey easy to dismiss di polls by saying dem get am wrong for 2016 and President Trump dey frequently do exactly dat. But e no dey entirely true.

Most national polls bin see Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but dat no mean say dem bin dey wrong, since she win three million more votes dan her rival.

Pollsters get some problems for 2016 – wey be failure to properly represent voters without college degree – meaning say dem no spot Mr Trump advantage for some key battleground states until late in di race, if at all. Most polling companies don correct am now.

But dis year get even more uncertainty dan normal due to di coronavirus pandemic and the effect e dey get on both di economy and how pipo go vote November, so pipo suppose look all polls with one eye, especially as election day still far.

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